I've always had a personal interest in the government's flagship legal form for social enterprises, the Community Interest Company (CIC), for lots of different reasons.
And I find myself regularly revisiting various published data sets about them - not (always) for idle curiosity, but usually because at least once a year I'm asked to write a feature article about them, or offer comment as part of a national programme or event. And I always try and make sure I'm speaking/writing from a place of actual fact, rather than regurgitating truth illusions about them...
Now, if you know my reputation in relation to CICs, then you may be thinking that I'm about to talk about the data published by the CIC Regulator into how many investigations they've opened in response to complaints and concerned raised with them about the conduct of CICs. Sorry - I'm not, although this number (and trend) is worryingly still zero, despite public frustrations shared by the Fundraising Regulator earlier this year about complaints people are making to them about CICs; and the BBC, Police, and others publicly raising concerns about CICs last year...
I'm instead looking at trend lines - those things you can draw on a chart that show a pattern between a set of numbers that keep changing each year.
I've been tracking data annually, as published by the CIC Regulator, about how many CICs they register each year, and how many they agree to wind up (spoiler: the closure rate of CICs is broadly the same as for all regular private companies, and always seems to have been).
This is a pretty chaotic chart at first glance, but when you ask excel to plot the 'trend line' (the overall year on year average based on all the numbers across all the years), then there suddenly appears to be a tipping point emerge:
Which means that unless something shifts (and its hard to see what, after the announcement earlier this year that the CIC Regulator will be being wound up itself before the next general election, with no real detail of what this means for existing or future CICs), then CICs will become increasingly fewer in number (based on more of them will be being wound up than are being registered to replace them).
I wondered aloud several years ago if the honeymoon for CICs might be over in light of the exponentially growing number of complaints people were making about them to the CIC Regulator (none of which were ever acted on) - but this data which now shows how people are now choosing them (or not), seems to suggest that 20 years after they were launched as part of a government policy agenda, the honeymoon for them really is now over?